Trump wins US 2024: Impact on Global Businesses

Having won the 2024 American election, Donald Trump will be sworn in at the presidential inauguration on 20^th January 2025, at which point he legally assumes the power and responsibilities of the presidency.

He’s promised to make his economic ideas a reality, some of them on his very first day back in office.  Trump might be the first former president to return to office in more than 130 years, but he’s doing so with his Republican party in full control of the US Senate, which means virtually all of his economic and trade policies are likely to become law.

For enterprise-tier and global telco industries, what does the does the new Trump government mean? What are the implications of a new era of ‘America First’ trade policy in a globally interconnected work? Who will be the winners of the tax cuts, punitive tariffs, trade wars and the promised cryptocurrency boom? And who are the key figures making these far-reaching strategies a reality? 

1. Trump cabinet picks and what they mean

Trump has already filled most the 15 official positions to lead executive departments, known as the Cabinet. These appointments may or may not still require conformation by the senate, but it strongly looks like a final lineup.  There are three that have roles and polices of particular interest to enterprise and the global communication tech sector.

Brendan Carr

Brendan Carr has been named the Chair of the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) which regulates all domestic and international communications by cable, radio, television, satellite and wire.

Carr has already served as one of five sitting FCC commissioner since 2017 but is now elevated to the position of setting the Commissions policy. While campaigning for Trump, he promised to end the “regulatory onslaught” that he said claims has stifled job creation and industry innovation. In a public statement, Trump said “Commissioner Carr is a warrior for free speech and has fought against the regulatory lawfare that has stifled Americans’ freedoms and held back our economy”.

Under Carr, deregulation and decentralization will be the order of the day. While the FCC has previously limited itself to radio, TV and ISP services, Carr intends for the Commission to adopt a broader remit that includes overseeing big tech companies such as Google, Apple, Meta, and Microsoft. Carr has also made it clear that the attempts by the prior administration to reinstate net neutrality, where service providers are prohibited from throttling broadband traffic to competitors’ sites or creating internet ‘fast lanes’, are now defunct.  

Any organization or business with data traffic routing through the States, traveling within American borders, or digitally publicizing its services or products will come under the purview of the FCC. Visit the 1GLOBAL blog for ongoing updates about specific issues effecting digital industries as the new FCC policies become clearer.

Pete Hegseth

Pete Hegseth’s own website primarily describes him as 'a husband, father, patriot and a Christian'. He was also an Army National Guard and Guantanamo Bay officer, and a FOX News host, now named as the Secretary of Defense in Donald Trump's second cabinet.

As the head of the most powerful military to have ever existed, Secretary Hegseth’s technology policies will have profound knock-on effects in the commercial communication industry. The Trump campaign promised the new Department of Defense (DOD) administration will radically reduce reliance on overseas supply chains in sectors like semiconductors, components, and communication software. 

Additionally, American research into emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence and machine learning will receive increased funding, while companies would be disincentivized from sourcing their technology from European and most especially Chinese suppliers.  

Satellite and space technology is set to be a priority with Hegseth in charge. This increased focus on space security is expected to include partnerships with specialist service suppliers, most notably SpaceX, for cost-effective satellite launches and space-based reconnaissance and communication. The effects that this is likely to have on ‘traditional’ telco technology used by most enterprise-tier business, which ultimately relies on ground-based cables as a backbone to its architecture, is visited later in this article.   

The influence of Hegseth’s policy focus will also be felt by Internet of Things (IoT) professionals, likely sooner rather than later.  Highly mobile security hardware such as unmanned aerial systems and portable biometric scanning tools are about to attract a lot of government spending, along with technology that Medium.com described as “applications for securing sensitive data, tracking the origins of critical materials, and ensuring the reliability of supply chains.” All which sound very much like the American Military-Industrial Complex is about to go in for IoT technology in a big way.

Marco Rubio

Senator Marco Rubio has been named as Trump’s Secretary of State, which is a choice that will have significant worldwide political repercussions, but also some particular to the global connectivity industry. 

A specific branch of the US Department of State is the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS). This is the primary tool with which Senator Rubio has been equipped with to block foreign ownership in America’s critical tech sectors. This is primarily targeted at China but will also include international companies that could potentially share sensitive technologies with Chinese entities.

On a more positive note, for international enterprise, Rubio has said that the State Department will foster partnerships with allied countries like Japan, South Korea, and members of the European Union to bolster semiconductor production and telco development. This includes joint initiatives on key tech such as 5G & 6G and cybersecurity, allowing American-aligned interests to accelerate innovation and set international standards.

The drawback to this digitally inclusive policy is that it also falls under the ‘America First’ manifesto and will entail new electronic trade framework agreements that strictly protects American digital sovereignty, US data privacy standards, and prohibits the use of American consumer data by foreign companies.

For the telco industry or any enterprise with transatlantic reach, an interesting ambition of Marco Rubio’s administration is its mission to modernize the technological support for its diplomacy and statecraft. A full tech infrastructure overhaul is being progressed, to equip diplomats with state-of-the-art mobile connectivity tools to better represent national interests abroad. The global connectivity industry will be watching that space with great interest to find out which technologies are leveraged, with the smart money being on eSIMs.

2. Big tariffs

Assuming that the above people remain the key players in the new Cabinet, what are the actual polices that the Trump administration has promised which could impact enterprise and the global communication industry?

The most heavily publicized and far reaching are the sweeping new tariffs.  As the former 45^th and soon 47^th President, Trump has promised tariffs of up to 20% on all goods imported into the US, and a punishing 60% tariff on all Chinese imports. The goal of this is to force manufacturing to return to America while providing an income to offset reduced domestic taxes while also securing a manufacturing base that will remain stable during the deportation of millions of immigrants.

Tariffs are traditionally unpopular with economists in every party. The Project 2025 document was influential during Trumps campaign. It’s a policy roadmap with “a biblically based, social science-reinforced definition of marriage and family” and calls for total elimination of the terms ‘gender equality’ and ‘reproductive rights’ from all laws and federal regulations.

It’s also co-authored by incoming FCC Chair Brendan Carr, mentioned above, and includes explicit advice against tariffs. It cites that steel tariffs in Trump’s 2017 presidency gained the steel industry about 1000 jobs, but cost 75,000 jobs from the wider manufacturing sector.

In terms of enterprise and telco it’s worth remembering that these tariffs, if applied in full, would also include just about every smartphone on the market. Apple’s chief component partner is Chinese manufacturer Foxconn, who assembles nearly all iPhone sold in the US.

Jefferies Global Research & Strategy put out a recent report that pointed out that “In Trump’s last presidency, Apple was exempted from import tariffs. Since then, Apple has pro-actively diversified its production away from China… but so far only about 10% of an iPhone is made outside China.” 

A very large proportion of smart devices are ‘made’ by American companies are actually assembled in China and then imported. Based on the sweeping statements made by Trump prior to the election, and the sheer magnitude of the revenue promised, then almost all smart devices being sold to the world’s largest economy will soon be notably more expensive, at least for consumers.   

Preston Padden, telco industry veteran, architect behind the building of the FOX broadcast network and Principle of Boulder Thinking consultancy, told reporters that “No sane economist would support tariffs.”

At least in the short-term enterprise, telco, smart-device and IoT industries can all expect a wait-and-see slowdown as both manufacturers and capital find out how the sudden increase in unit prices effect consumer behavior.

It’s been observed that consumers are hanging on to their expensive smartphones through more product-generations than before, so if prices increase then it’s reasonable to expect this trend to intensify and consumers become more price-sensitive to things like data costs, carrier switching and special offers.    

Deregulation & crypto

Due to international time zones and opening hours, the Asian markets were the first to react to Trump’s win. There was a mixed reaction, with Japan and Australia's up slightly, Hong Kong's Hang Seng down a little, and Chinese and European markets maintaining a wait-and-see attitude which has continued largely unaffected so far. The US market was more positive, with the Dow taking an uptick of 3.4%.

The commodity market which reacted by far the most enthusiastically was cryptocurrency.  

Bitcoin, most popular of all cryptos, immediately hit a new record of over €69,800 the day after the win. For a frame of refence, Bitcoin was worth €0.00094 at launch in 2009.

Trump has promised to make America the "crypto capital of the planet" by eliminating virtually all current regulation of the market, a pledge which earned him votes from a large amount of young male white-collar tech professionals, and at least $100 million in donations from crypto companies.

CEO of The Blockchain Association Kristin Smith told TIME magazine that “This is a huge victory for crypto…I think we've really turned a corner, and we've got the right folks in place to get the policy settled once and for all.”

A big part of Trumps championing of crypto is his promise to fire Gary Gensler, the Chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Despite the President not actually having the authority to fire Gensler until the end of an appointed term, previous SEC Chairs have traditionally quit when opposing Presidents take office. Gensler is unpopular with cryptocurrency advocates, having kept the lid on regulation to protect consumers from the market’s frequent bubbles and collapses like those of FTX or Luna. 

It comes as little surprise that one of the big winners of this is Elon Musk, probably the most vocal of all crypto enthusiasts, who’s preferred and personally endorsed brand Dogecoin doubled in value on Trumps win and subsequent announcement it would have a quasi-governmental group named after it.  

The market link between cryptocurrencies, digital service regulation, and the telco market is nuanced and multi-faceted. It can be generally observed that there’s an accelerating trend for global network operators and providers to expand their offering from pure connectivity to full digital lifestyle services. Vodaphone announced in 2024 that it was working to integrate blockchain payments and crypto wallets directly into its SIM technology.

This applies not just to consumer services, but IoT industry too. Speaking to Yahoo Finance, the CPO of Pairpoint David Palmer said that the Vodaphone subsidiary was looking to “provide a secure digital platform that allows vehicles, devices, and machines to autonomously and seamlessly interact and trade with each other."

Put simply: if digital currencies are about to find widespread and (relatively) unregulated adoption, then the incorporation of crypto wallets into mobile devices through SIM tech is about to experience an unprecedented surge in development.

Leveraging the existing SIM Toolkit (STK) infrastructure, mobile operators can enable direct access to crypto wallet services so customers can easily manage and transfer digital assets, all without 3^rd party applications.

The inbuilt authentication capability of SIM tech can be extended to provide additional layers of security for crypto wallets. Customers can utilize SIM-based biometric authentication, such as fingerprint or face scans, to authorize transactions of their digital assets.

The relationship between digital asset regulations, mobile operators, and SIM technology has already been developing rapidly, but it’s reasonable to expect the Trump administration’s policies will provoke massive acceleration. 

Aggressive trade

The Trump presidency has consistently and credibly pledged to put American interests first and fund these promises at the expense of trade partners. This is making many of America’s usual trade partners nervous that relations are taking an adversarial turn. Thilo Brodtmann, Head of the German Mechanical Engineering Industry Association, said in a press statement " Trump's second term in office will be a greater challenge for German and European industry than his first term.”

Despite Trumps claims that a heavily protected markets will make the world want to trade more with America, rather than less, most forecasters expect this approach to strain global trade and force both Europe and especially China to develop alternative markets.

On one hand, domestic device manufacturers can look forward to some fairly significant tax reductions under the new administration.

On the other hand, the Wall Street Journal has predicted the overall reduction in state income means that the Federal Reserve will almost certainly increase its interest rates.

This will be felt by businesses that are currently financing credit, or looking to merge or acquire, which can destabilize even big players in the telco industry. Last year EchoStar, one of America’s largest satellite and wireless telco providers, admitted that “substantial doubt exists about our ability to continue as a going concern” largely due to being hit by interest rates and the cost of capital.

The global connectivity industry and telco supply chains are, by their nature, far reaching and multi-national and so sensitive to disruption. Both Nokia and Ericsson, based in Scandinavia, are hardly considered hostile trading partners - and were even suggested for state acquisition by former U.S. Attorney General William Barr. Nonetheless, without specific exemptions they will not find favor in Trump’s economy, which does little to promote his desire for western competition against China-based Huawei Technologies.  

Neutrality, broadband & BEAD

On an immediate, telco groups and enterprise that aren’t directly affected by the tariffs or trade environment are going to be happy about the new President. The technology sector doesn’t much care for regulation, and the new administration leans heavily towards laissez-faire economics. Trump’s win may well have a positive impact on the bottom lines, with less state interference between them and their customers.

One of the most wide-reaching price and service regulations on network providers and ISP’s routing traffic through American jurisdictions was net neutrality. Net neutrality was a raft of regulations requiring that connectivity service providers should treat all data equally, without favoring or throttling specific websites or services. This meant that providers couldn't charge different prices for access to different content, or slow down connections to certain websites, ensuring a level playing field for all online content.

With Trump’s return to office, net neutrality is over. The above-mentioned Brendan Carr has confirmed that the FCC will not be forwarding legislation that would have reinstated neutrality from the last time it was axed during Trump’s previous term. 

This bodes well for network providers, but it’s not all good news for the industry - particularly in the form of the expected curtailing of the Broadband Equity, Access, and Deployment (BEAD) Program.

The BEAD Program is a $42.5 billion project to build broadband networks that would reach all across America, giving a desperately needed boost to rural and interior regions. It was originally expected to a huge boom for the connectivity industry, with everyone from cable layers to mobile operators looking forward to a boom.

The trouble with BEAD is that it heavily and explicitly favors fiberoptic broadband technology. The Trump administration explicitly does not.     

Trump told The Joe Rogan Experience podcast that “We’re spending a trillion dollars [on BEAD] to get cables all over the country, up to upstate areas where you have two farms, and they are spending millions of dollars to have a cable. Elon can do it for nothing.”

Many commentators are not surprised that, again, Elon Musk’s own technology is having significant policy impact and implications for the worldwide telco market.

Specific have yet to be confirmed, but it’s suggested that a lot of BEAD’s $42+ billion is going to be repurposed for Starlink and satellite-based connectivity. This technology doesn’t come without drawbacks, chief among them that it’s not currently given exclusive use of much of the broadcast spectrum, but New Street Research’s Blair Levin observes that Musk will most likely simply ask the Trump controlled FFC for more. “The bottom line is Brendan Carr will not be the most important person for telecom policy…That will be Elon Musk” said Levin to reporters.

What next?

For any enterprise-scale business with supply chains moving through American territory, the currently prevailing wisdom seems to be to stock up. Immediately. Logistics companies are reporting that every sector from retail to manufacturing are moving as fast as possible to cushion themselves from aggressive new tariffs and trade laws.

Paul Brashier, Vice President at ITS Logistics, told CNBC News “This is 2018 all over again…The calls expand beyond shippers who have Chinese imports. The global tariff threat is fueling calls for frontloading all around the globe.”

Between aggressive new policies, rapidly shifting technological priorities, tax incentives and trade disincentives, the terrain is unpredictable for the global market at both enterprise and local tiers. A strong suggestion for business is to take control of the costs that can be seen and understood on an immediate term, to help with whatever is coming in the next quarter. 

Any business strategy with reach beyond the purely local is going to require a flexible and scalable communications platform that performs both in terms of cost-efficiency and robust dependability. If you can’t be sure what’s coming down the road, you need to be certain that your organization and communicate and respond advantageously when that situation does arrive, from anywhere, anytime. 

eSIM solution

Embedded SIM (eSIM) technology and remote connectivity management solutions for business by connectivity pioneers like 1GLOBAL empower enterprises with the freedom to activate data plans directly on corporate devices, sidestepping the often-exorbitant fees of international roaming.  This technology provides a streamlined experience with swift activation, eliminating the need for physical SIM cards and ensuring seamless connectivity across different carriers, including all of America, for optimal coverage and cost efficiency.

The rapid adoption of eSIMs in the professional sphere has largely been driven by their unparalleled convenience at both an individual and organizational level. eSIMs offer cost-effective roaming and effortless network switching, doing away with the cumbersome handling of physical cards. This technology has become a staple in virtually every modern network-enabled smart device.

Previously, international roaming involved juggling a collection of SIM cards, each with its own contractual obligations, fees, and regional limitations. This not only generated administrative overhead and expenses but also led to inevitable losses and replacements. 

For large enterprises managing data usage, ensuring policy compliance, and monitoring numerous agreements became a significant burden on IT and finance departments, escalating with the growing dependence on connectivity.

This is exactly the kind of unnecessary drain and drag that the smartest operators in enterprise and telco sectors will make sure aren’t slowing them down in the new environment of market uncertainty, emergent opportunity and sudden pitfall.